Neurocrine Biosciences [NBIX] — Catalyst Calendar
Analysis date: 2026-07-29 · Catalyst Criteria type: MEASURED — dated events that would confirm or refute the Valuation Criteria implied path. Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own a compounder; these govern monitoring.
Rule applied throughout: no date is asserted unless it is (a) disclosed in a filing or (b) derived from the company's own reporting pattern and explicitly labelled as an estimate. Clinical readout dates that NBIX has not disclosed are recorded as undated. Nothing here is invented.
1. Confirmed dates (filed)
| Date | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | Sale of Neurocrine Group Limited to Immedica Pharma AB for $63.2m cash; $28.6m pre-tax gain recognised in Q1 2026 | 10-Q Note, 2026-05-05 |
| 2026-03 (month) | Phase 2 initiated for NBI-1117570 (dual M1/M4 muscarinic agonist) in adults with schizophrenia; $22.5m Nxera milestone expensed to R&D in Q1 2026, paid in Q2 2026 | 10-Q Note |
| 2026-04-05 | Merger agreement signed with Soleno Therapeutics — $53.00/share cash, ~$2.9bn equity value | 8-K, accession 0001193125-26-142904 |
| 2026-04-07 | Soleno voluntarily withdrew its EU marketing authorisation application for VIOKAT (VYKAT XR) — an EMA decision had been expected mid-2026 | Soleno 10-Q, 2026-05-07 |
| 2026-04-20 | Tender offer commenced | Soleno SC 14D9 |
| 2026-05-05 | Q1 2026 results. Revenue $814.5m (+42%); INGREZZA $656.9m (+20%); CRENESSITY $153.3m. FY2026 INGREZZA guidance reaffirmed at $2,700–2,800m | 8-K, accession 0000914475-26-000025 |
| 2026-05-14 | $1.0bn senior secured revolving credit facility entered with JPMorgan; $600.0m drawn. Covenants: max total net leverage 3.75:1.00 (4.25 post-acquisition election); min interest coverage 2.00:1.00. Security interest granted over substantially all assets | 8-K, accession 0001193125-26-228013 |
| 2026-05-15 | Tender offer expired; 46,356,114 Soleno shares tendered = 88.9% of shares outstanding | same |
| 2026-05-18 | Soleno acquisition COMPLETED under DGCL §251(h) | same; Soleno Form 15-12G filed 2026-05-28 |
| 2026-05-27 | 2026 Annual Meeting; amended 2025 Equity Incentive Plan approved. 100,581,991 shares entitled to vote at the 2026-03-31 record date | 8-K, accession 0000914475-26-000029 |
No 8-K has been filed since 2026-05-28. Q1 2026 remains the most recent reported quarter.
2. Estimated dates (derived from the company's own reporting pattern — labelled)
NBIX cadence over the last eight quarters: Q1 → early May; Q2 → late July; Q3 → late October; FY → early February. Prior-year actuals: Q2 2025 reported 2025-07-30; Q3 2025 2025-10-28; FY2025 2026-02-11; Q1 2026 2026-05-05.
| Estimated date | Event | Why it matters | Confirms / refutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~2026-07-30 (est. — i.e. WITHIN DAYS, possibly tomorrow) | Q2 2026 results | Three material first-time disclosures in one print: (1) the Soleno purchase price allocation — goodwill, intangibles and, critically, the inventory fair-value step-up, the item that distorted GMED's reported margins in this same batch; (2) the first filed post-deal balance sheet, replacing this memo's estimated ~$226m pro-forma net cash; (3) whether INGREZZA's Q1 +20.5% was the comp or the trend. | Confirms: INGREZZA YoY ≥ +12%; CRENESSITY sequential ≥ +10%; VYKAT XR consolidated at ≥ $95m annualised pace; modest goodwill and step-up. Refutes: INGREZZA YoY ≤ +9%; CRENESSITY sequential ≤ +5%; a large inventory step-up that will flatter FY2027 at FY2026's expense. |
| ~2026-10-28 (est.) | Q3 2026 results | First full quarter of VYKAT XR ownership. Against a Q3'25 comp of $794.9m total / $686.6m INGREZZA — INGREZZA's hardest comp of the year (+12.0% YoY in the base period). | Confirms: total revenue ≥ $1,000m with INGREZZA growth positive against the toughest comp. Refutes: INGREZZA declining YoY. |
| ~2027-02-10 (est.) | FY2026 results and initial FY2027 guidance | First company guidance that includes VYKAT XR, and the first year in which NBIX guides a multi-product portfolio. Also the first full-year test of whether the FY2025 R&D step-up (+38.9%) converts to operating leverage. | Confirms: FY2027 guidance implying total revenue ≥ $4.3bn and non-GAAP EPS growth restored to double digits. Refutes: another flat non-GAAP EPS year (FY2025 was +0.9% on +21.4% revenue). |
3. Undated but live — no date is asserted
| Event | Status | Why it is on the list |
|---|---|---|
| Zydus INGREZZA SPRINKLE ANDA litigation | Live in the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware | Filed by Zydus in March 2025 with a Paragraph IV certification; NBIX sued April 2025. A parallel New Jersey action was dismissed in favour of the Delaware proceeding. Zydus is NOT party to the 2023 settlements that set generic entry at 1 March 2038. No trial date, no Markman date and no 30-month stay expiry is disclosed in any filing reviewed, so none is stated here. This is the single largest binary in the file and it has no calendar entry — which is itself the finding. |
| DOJ civil investigative demand | Received August 2025; NBIX cooperating | Concerns "our sales and marketing of INGREZZA." "No assurance can be given as to the timing or outcome." No accrual disclosed. No resolution date disclosed. |
| osavampator (NBI-1065845) Phase 3 in MDD | Enrolling; Phase 3 initiated 2025 | A $37.5m Takeda milestone was expensed on initiation in Q1 2025. No topline date is disclosed. Economics are a royalty-bearing licence (mid-to-upper-teens US royalty to Takeda), not the original 50/50 profit share — converted in January 2025. |
| direclidine (NBI-1117568) Phase 3 in schizophrenia | Ongoing | Named in R&D guidance as a Phase 3 programme in both the FY2025 and Q1 2026 releases. No topline date is disclosed. |
| NBI-1117570 Phase 2 in schizophrenia | First patients dosed March 2026 | Nxera collaboration; up to $2.48bn of potential milestones. Readout timing not disclosed. |
| NBI-1065890 Phase 2 in tardive dyskinesia | Initiation announced at the December 2025 R&D Day | Next-generation VMAT2 inhibitor, internally designed for "longer-acting options" — i.e. a lifecycle answer to the 2038 INGREZZA cliff. No dates disclosed. |
| NBIP-'2118 Phase 1 in obesity | First-in-human initiated, announced with Q1 2026 | CRF₂ peptide agonist, potential first-in-class. The CRF platform extended into metabolic disease. |
| Soleno purchase accounting | Not yet filed | Measurement period runs to 2027-05-18 under ASC 805. Preliminary allocation due in the Q2 2026 10-Q. |
| CRENESSITY orphan-drug exclusivity | Granted, seven years from December 2024 → ~December 2031 | Plus Orange Book patents to 2035–2041 and pending applications potentially to 2046. |
| INGREZZA generic entry (settled filers) | 1 March 2038, "or earlier under certain circumstances" | 2023 settlements with the original ANDA filers. The "certain circumstances" language is standard and its triggers are not disclosed. |
4. Catalyst density assessment
Extreme, and front-loaded. The Q2 2026 print is expected within days and carries three separate first-time disclosures — purchase accounting, the post-deal balance sheet, and the INGREZZA trend. Any one of them could move the analysis; all three land at once, with the stock at 99.6% of its 52-week high.
The most important item on this page has no date. The Zydus INGREZZA SPRINKLE litigation determines the
terminal value of 84.6% of trailing revenue, and neither the docket dates nor the 30-month stay expiry appear in
any NBIX filing reviewed. Per references/mention-frequency.md, an emerging risk with no dated event attached
is a catalyst to go find: the PACER docket for the D. Delaware action is the obvious next research step and it
is outside what this memo could retrieve.